Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROGGING DRY AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN AS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS SUPPRESSED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND IS NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO A QUICKER
END THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SCTD STRONG TSTMS AND ISOLD SVR UNTIL
ABOUT SUNSET. FOR THU AFTN...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SERN GA WITH
POPS RANGING FM 10% ACRS THE FAR NRN CWA TO 40% ACRS THE SRN CWA...
WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN POPS ACRS SERN GA WITH A RANGE OF 20-40% WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACRE TH WESTERN CWA.

MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STILL PROMOTE
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN BY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING BUT VERY
MOISTURE LADEN FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL OVER
THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT
HAVE KEPT THEM AS GOOD CHANCE FOR NOW. FRONT DISSIPATES ON MONDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND AREA WILL COME UNDER DEEPER NORTHEASTERLY
THEN EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WINDS/SURGE DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH ABOVE
15 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR
TO SLOWLY DRY A LITTLE BIT AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO DROP POPS BELOW
CLIMO OF 30-50%.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS. EXCEPT SOME SLY NOCTURNAL SURGES CLOSE TO
15 KNOTS/SEAS 3 FEET ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 92 71 93 / 10 10 10 30
SSI 74 89 75 89 / 10 20 00 20
JAX 72 91 72 91 / 20 30 10 30
SGJ 73 88 75 87 / 20 30 20 30
GNV 70 91 71 91 / 20 40 30 40
OCF 70 91 71 91 / 20 40 20 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HESS/TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-191000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEABREEZES AND MOVE INLAND. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE INLAND MAINLY WEST OF I-95 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THAT TIME AND MAY ENHANCE THE
STORMS. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING WINDS...THE STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES IN A FEW AREAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS...AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED IN
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

GAZ150-163-181900-

CLINCH GA-WARE GA-
228 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND WARE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CLINCH COUNTY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND EAST OF 441 BETWEEN HOMERVILLE AND
FARGO...AND WESTERN SECTION OF THE OKEFENOKEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

GAZ150-163-164-181945-

CHARLTON GA-CLINCH GA-WARE GA-
257 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CHARLTON...EASTERN CLINCH AND WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK AND THE OKEFENOKEE
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

FLZ024-GAZ165-166-182000-

COASTAL CAMDEN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-NASSAU FL-
320 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER KINGSLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
KINGSLAND...HARRIETTS BLUFF...KINGS BAY BASE...CUMBERLAND ISLAND...
ST. MARYS...DUNGENESS AND YULEE THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

FLZ025-182045-

DUVAL FL-
358 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF TALBOT ISLAND...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND TALBOT ISLAND AND LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND THROUGH 445 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

FLZ038-182045-

FLAGLER FL-
400 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN FLAGLER
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDALUSIA...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND ANDALUSIA THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

FLZ024-GAZ164>166-182100-

CHARLTON GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-NASSAU FL-
413 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU...CHARLTON
AND CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGS FERRY...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND KINGS FERRY...KINGSLAND...
HARRIETTS BLUFF AND COLESBURG THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI