Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BERMUDA SURFACE HI PRES
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE 500H RIDGE
IS ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL ALLOW WEAK WESTERLIES
TO PUSH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE COAST. 12Z
MODEL SUITE DOES ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WED/THU...BUT MODELS KEEP MOST OF IT ACRS SE GA...SO
WHILE CLIMO POPS CLOSE TO 40-50% ACRS NE FL WILL CONTINUE...AREAS N
OF I-10 WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
LITTLE EACH DAY WITH THU AFTN SEEING A RETURN TO SOME MID 90S ACRS
INLD SE GA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.
12Z GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A SLUG OF MOISTURE/DECAYING FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRI/SAT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH 12Z ETA HOLDS THE
500H RIDGE A LITTLE LONGER AND KEEP THE MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. WILL WAIT TILL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS BEFORE
CRANKING UP ANY LIKELY POPS...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLIMO 40-50% POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 91 70 94 / 20 30 20 30
SSI 74 87 74 89 / 30 30 10 30
JAX 71 89 71 91 / 30 40 20 30
SGJ 73 86 74 87 / 30 40 20 30
GNV 70 89 70 92 / 30 50 20 40
OCF 71 90 71 92 / 30 50 20 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HESS/TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181000-
ALACHUA FL-APPLING GA-ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-
BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLAY FL-CLINCH GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COFFEE GA-COLUMBIA FL-DUVAL FL-ECHOLS GA-FLAGLER FL-
GILCHRIST FL-HAMILTON FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
JEFF DAVIS GA-MARION FL-NASSAU FL-PIERCE GA-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
SUWANNEE FL-UNION FL-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEABREEZES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZES...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE BACK TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/HESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
616 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             3 SW HOBOKEN            31.15N 82.17W
08/17/2004  1.00 INCH        BRANTLEY           GA   PUBLIC

0430 PM     HAIL             WNW KINGS BAY BASE      30.79N 81.51W
08/17/2004  0.75 INCH        CAMDEN             GA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR LAUREL ISLAND

&&

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

GAZ150-172315-
WARE GA-
630 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WARE COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BICKLEY...OR ABOUT
9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BICKLEY THROUGH 715 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

FLZ040-172330-
MARION FL-
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOSS BLUFF...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMERALDA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MOSS BLUFF THROUGH
730 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
733 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

FLZ025-032-180015-
CLAY FL-DUVAL FL-
733 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY AND DUVAL
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE
HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF ORANGE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...NORMANDY...DOCTORS INLET...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK
TERRACE...ORTEGA...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE AND ORANGE PARK THROUGH 815
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

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