Tornado Warning 108, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING.  ROUND ONE OF RAINFALL IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS HOUR. THIS FEATURED A
NARROW BAND OF ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL FROM EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH LINCOLN AND SIMPSON EARLIER THIS EVENING. SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHEAST IN SCOTT...NEWTON...
NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE A
NORTHEASTWARD TREK. ROUND TWO IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SW LA...ENTERING MY EAST CENTRAL LA PARISHES AT THIS TIME.

03Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AS THE SFC FLOW IS
VEERING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL
TO MY SOUTH...HOWEVER IT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF MY SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS ARE CONFINED TO MY FAR NORTH...IN THE
LOWER 50S...OTHERWISE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STAKING CLAIM TO THE
REGION...TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED THEIR LOW POINT. TO
BOOT...MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...AND CURRENT PROFILER DATA
CONFIRMS...LLJ IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND REGION IS POISED TO
BECOME POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ULJ. 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSES AND RUC CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 60KTS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A TOUCH LOW AT 20KTS.  AREAS
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND EXPANDING RAINFALL COVERAGE. WITH
SHOWALTER INDEX VALUES WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND LIS FROM 700MB AROUND
-1C TO -2C...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
TEXAS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. SFC AND MU
CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF -2 LIS. ISO TO SCT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BEGINNING IN MY SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY RISK...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS PACKAGE HANDLES SENSIBLE WEATHER WELL AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE GONE AS
LOW AS THEY WILL GO. WITH DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW STEADY RISE ACROSS THE
AREA...HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED LOWS TO
AROUND 55 IN MY NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER AM STILL EXPECTING A EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE RAINFALL
AFTER 2 OR 3AM.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MS...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
.LA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
.AR...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARZ074-075.

&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0359 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
100959-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0359 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING... GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO TO DEKALB LINE.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LINE...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 AT HATTIESBURG...AND THIS
IS LENDING TO A RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVES THROUGH... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...FLOODING...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF A COLUMBIA
TO MORTON TO WEST POINT LINE. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS COULD BE NEEDED THIS MORNING OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
12/09/2004                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL STREETS TO FLOOD.

&&

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIDALIA                 31.57N 91.44W
12/09/2004                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW ROADS IN VIDALIA WERE COVER WITH 2 FEET OF WATER.

&&

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISON                 32.45N 90.11W
12/09/2004                   MADISON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC CALLED IN TO MEDIA THAT ABOUT 100 FT. OF
            GREENSCROSSING RD WAS UNDER WATER.

&&

ALLEN