Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 090610
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 AM CST THU DEC 9 2004

MSC069-090621-
KEMPER MS-
1211 AM CST THU DEC 9 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR KEMPER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3291 8890 3260 8889 3260 8841 3291 8837

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WET NIGHT SHAPING UP FOR
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND OVERRUNNING PCPN IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCH AND A
HALF PWS AND 60 DEGREE SFC DEW PTS SURGING NORTH OF I-20 BY
MIDNIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT JET ALONG WITH 50KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY COULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL DURING
DAY THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL FALL OVER SATURATED GROUNDS. WL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH TONIGHT AND EXTEND IT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
EXPECTED. WHILE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DEEPENS
THE MEAN UPPER TOUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER OUR REGION.
AFTER A COLD START IN THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING MOST SITES SHOULD
MAX OUT IN THE 60S. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
DRAW SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY BUT MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN W-NWLY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
REGION WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVES
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DRY COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND AMPLIFY THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE
SOUTH OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION. A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC WILL SETTLE OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW OUR COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
TO RADIATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THE FURTHEST SOUTH SO FAR THIS SEASON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  70  49  61 / 100  70  10  00
MERIDIAN      58  70  48  61 / 100  70  10  00

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MS...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
.LA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
.AR...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ARZ074-075.

&&

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091928-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
128 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...LIFT...AND
WIND SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.

AS IT STANDS NOW...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARISHES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH EASTWARD AS A
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER LOUISIANA AND MOVES EAST. BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO
ALABAMA.

...FLOODING...
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO
CONCERNS...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
WILL ALLOW FOR FLOODING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP RATHER EASILY UNDER
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.