Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Jackson, MS

November 1, 2004Ashley County, Arkansas

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 1, 2004, 2:57 PM CST for Ashley County, Arkansas. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 1, 2004, 2:57 PM CST (20:57 UTC)
Expired
Nov 1, 2004, 3:45 PM CST
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ashley County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 189 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Nov 1, 10:00 AM CSTTornado WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2004-11-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2004-11-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 144 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
642 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 1, 10:51 AM CST, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 10:51 AM CST, 4 hours 6 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 1, 2:33 PM CST, 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022032-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
232 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO INDIANOLA MISSISSIPPI LINE
TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TUESDAY.

THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR.	HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.	AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES
EAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...AND PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.  THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG JET STREAM DYNAMICS...AND A
SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS THE CHANGE IN WIND
SPEED AND/OR DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A FERRIDAY
LOUISIANA...TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ARKLAMISS
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM BASTROP
LOUISIANA...TO GREENVILLE AND CLEVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS THIS
EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE MAY RESULT IN AN INCH OF
RAIN FALLING DURING A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FLOODING...MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA TUESDAY.  AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.	THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT.	AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF  STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING OF
MONDAY...NOVEMBER 8.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BUTTS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 1, 3:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar49 min
Nov 1, 4:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar47 min
Nov 1, 3:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChicot29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.