Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL DEVELOPED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL VORTEX
ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER OVER EXTREME NE LA
AND WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH EASTWARD PROPAGATION TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS LIMITED TO NE LA PARISHES AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
MS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER/PRECIP FORECAST GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. EXPECT MOST WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEFORE 2
AM CDT.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

43/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
032121-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
842 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS	SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM JACKSON METRO TO BROOKHAVEN AS WELL AS  NORTH OF A
CARTHAGE TO DE KALB LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH TO COLUMBIA.

A COMPLEX OF STRONG STORMS WERE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO
OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS	WILL ALSO  SWING  ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PROVIDE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  OVER THE REGION.	THIS ROUND OF STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

I THE MAIN RISK FROM STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 70 MILES AN
HOUR AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .

...FLOODING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.  ONLY ISOLATED MINOR	PONDING OF WATER CAN BE  EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES REACH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE
AFFECTED WILL BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THEY
MAY ALSO
BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT A TIME FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.