Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MCS #3 GETTING ORGANIZED
OVER OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. DUE TO THE HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN OF
MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS OVER THE SAME AREAS OVER SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME...THE MODELS HAVE TEMPORARILY BECOME UNRELIABLE.
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LAPSE DATA APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST FORECAST APPROACH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT DATA SHOWS TWO AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MCS. THE FIRST IS JUST SOUTH OVE IT OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND
THE OTHER...MUCH LARGER AXIS EXTENDS FROM TULSA...OKLAHOMA TO
CHATTANOOGA...TENNESSEE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED JUST NORTH
OF THE LATTER INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER THINGS TO NOTE...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AND THERE IS A
BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM
VICKSBURG TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MCS #3.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECTING MCS #3 TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFFECT MAINLY
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT
ANOTHER MCS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF #3...OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW MCS (MCS #4) IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY
SUNSET...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED DECENT SHEAR
PROFILE...THINK THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
AMONGST THE OTHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR WINDS
AND HAIL YET AGAIN. AFTER MCS #4 MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SOME AND GIVE THE ATMOSPHERE PLENTY OF
TIME TO RECOVER FOR MCS #5...WHICH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME TOMORROW
EVENING AND NIGHT. POSSIBLE EVIDENCE FOR THIS ONE CAN BE SEEN IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
THIS ONE SHOULD BE THE LAST MCS FOR A WHILE...I HOPE. AT THIS POINT
IN TIME...THINKING THAT THE MODELS REGAIN THEIR HANDLING AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE INDUCED BY THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAN THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE
EAST..WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT A BIT THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND MAKES THE
FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES ZONAL. THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD HELP
PREVENT A STATIONARY FRONT...OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...FROM MOVING
SOUTH AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERIOD...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEKS...THERE WILL BE A WESTWARD MIGRATION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS SHOULD...FOR THE MOST PART...HELP CONTINUE
THE DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ECLIPSING 90
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  87  65  87 /  50  50  40  30
MERIDIAN      66  87  63  87 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

18/HENRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
032121-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
842 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS	SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM JACKSON METRO TO BROOKHAVEN AS WELL AS  NORTH OF A
CARTHAGE TO DE KALB LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH TO COLUMBIA.

A COMPLEX OF STRONG STORMS WERE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO
OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS	WILL ALSO  SWING  ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PROVIDE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  OVER THE REGION.	THIS ROUND OF STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

I THE MAIN RISK FROM STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 70 MILES AN
HOUR AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .

...FLOODING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.  ONLY ISOLATED MINOR	PONDING OF WATER CAN BE  EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES REACH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE
AFFECTED WILL BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THEY
MAY ALSO
BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT A TIME FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.