Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN ZONES EARLY TODAY...EXITING ERN
ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. HEALTHY CONVECTION NOTED IN
VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT NWD SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT.
LEFT IN CHANCE POPS NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT WAVE. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN NRN STREAM
PIVOTS THIS WAY DURING THE DAY TO ADD TO UPPER SUPPORT FOR HIGHER
POPS WEDNESDAY.

SHORTWAVE TRACK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY. NEXT BOUNDARY FORECAST INTO NRN
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH REMNANTS INDICATED SOMEWHERE S OF
INTERSTATE 20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE THAT WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE SRN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO LEFT
BEST CONVECTION COVERAGE SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS CONTINUING
PREVIOUS TREND TO SHIFT BOUNDARY NEAR SRN BORDER FRIDAY...LEAVING
AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE IN ITS WAKE.

LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REDEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
REGION TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021213-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
713 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO YAZOO CITY TO MERIDIAN. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MILES AN HOUR AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM YAZOO CITY TO
MERIDIAN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. AN UPPER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO	SWING
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION.

...FLOODING...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO YAZOO CITY
TO MERIDIAN. PONDING WATER CAN BE  EXPECTED ACROSS SOME ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HINDS COUNTY FOR A
POTENTIAL DAM FAILURE IN BYRAM TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY REGION
OF CONCERN WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP
TO YAZOO CITY TO DEKALB.    THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND
AND SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NEXT WEATHER F DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FORTHE	DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
06/01/2004                   FORREST            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOMES AND BUSINESSES FLOODED. MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      43 N PURVIS             31.76N 89.41W
06/01/2004                   COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE HOUSES UNDER WATER. ROADS CLOSED. TWO HOUSES
            FLOODED.

&&

XXX