Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN ZONES EARLY TODAY...EXITING ERN
ZONES LATE AFTERNOON. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. HEALTHY CONVECTION NOTED IN
VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT NWD SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT.
LEFT IN CHANCE POPS NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT WAVE. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN NRN STREAM
PIVOTS THIS WAY DURING THE DAY TO ADD TO UPPER SUPPORT FOR HIGHER
POPS WEDNESDAY.

SHORTWAVE TRACK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY. NEXT BOUNDARY FORECAST INTO NRN
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH REMNANTS INDICATED SOMEWHERE S OF
INTERSTATE 20 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE THAT WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE SRN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO LEFT
BEST CONVECTION COVERAGE SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS CONTINUING
PREVIOUS TREND TO SHIFT BOUNDARY NEAR SRN BORDER FRIDAY...LEAVING
AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE IN ITS WAKE.

LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REDEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
REGION TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
012054-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
354 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM DOWN DRAFTS. NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20... VERY ISOLATED...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20....A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. MARGINAL SHEAR
PROFILES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA WILL ENABLE THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MULTI CELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AT
AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...FLOODING...
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PERSISTENT
DOWNPOURS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  THIS COULD RESULT IN THE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM RELATED WIND GUSTS.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WILL  LIFT THE
STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD TO BE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
BOTH AFTERNOONS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT...JUNE 7.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.