Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOCAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER FOREST COUNTY THIS
MORNING BUT ANOTHER WET DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA.
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TODAY AND SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE WINDS ALOFT...INCLUDING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER TODAY OVER OUR REGION. OUR AIRMASS
WILL BE JUICED WITH PWS AROUND 1 3/4 INCHES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH WL LIKELY NOT
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN THE HWO. RIDGING ALOFT
FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. WL CONTINUE EXISTING CHC POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH RIDGE OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FURTHER LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY AND BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS SEA BREEZE GENERATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN THE
WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SW
FLOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND EAST ACROSS
THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  66  84  66 /  70  20  40  20
MERIDIAN      82  66  83  65 /  70  20  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191851-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ARK LA MISS REGION. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

...FLOODING...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET .  THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS
VERY MOIST AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY AREAS. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS IN THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INDUCE PONDING OF
WATER UPON ROAD SURFACES AND IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MAY CAUSE THE OVERFLOWING  OF SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND
CULVERTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAY
25.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.