Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN W OF THE FORECAST AREA...ANY EWD
ADVANCEMENT BLOCKED BY THE UPPER RDIGE PERCHED OVER THE SERN U.S...
BUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TREND TO WEAKEN UPSTREAM
TROUGH AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS FROM THE W...SQUEEZING THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROUGH OUT INTO THE GULF AS THE RIDGE CENTERS CONVERGE. LAST
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE SCENARIO CHANGES TO
MORE SCATTERED REGIME FOR THE MIDWEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT FORCING IS
DIMINISHED AS RIDGING INCREASES.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. AM ON THE FENCE ABOUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGING SHIFTS
EWD AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. ANOTHER FLAT TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND BEGINS TO PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF TROUGH OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB THETAE VALUES DROPPING SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER MUCH OF WEEKEND FOR NOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS NRN AR
BY MONDAY BUT LITTLE DYNAMICS EXPECTED.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
181950-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
250 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND  EVENING
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLEVELAND...TO
CANTON...TO RALEIGH...TO LAUREL. SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
MAY CAUSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...FLOODING...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST AND THE GROUND HAS
BECOME SATURATED. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE
AREA IN PAST FEW DAYS...SO PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOOK FOR DOWNPOURS TO CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...WITH WATER OVERFLOWING  SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS AND CULVERTS POSSIBLE ALSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAY
24.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.