Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE FROM COASTAL
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT ALONG THE US
HWY 82 CORRIDOR WITH NUMEROUS +TSRA FROM KELD-KGLH-KCBM. LARGE
COMPLEX OF TSRA THAT HAD BEEN MOVING EWD ALONG I-10 AND ACROSS SRN
MS HAS BUILT NWD INTO CENTRAL MS AS SCATTERED TSRA WHERE MINIMAL
SUNSHINE ALLOWED LAPS CAPES TO REACH 1500-1800J/KG BEFORE CONVECTION
FIRED. EXPECT THE TWO AREAS TO MERGE THIS EVENING AND THEN FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE ALONG US HWY 82 AND INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT REACHES 35KTS
AT 850MB AFTER 06Z...LEAD TO A CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN RISK WITH 2-3 OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SHORT BURSTS TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NWD BY AROUND 12Z. THANKS FOR COORDINATION...LZK...MEG...HUN. A
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN SERN AR BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TRAILING BOUNDARY FROM THIS LOW MOVES BACK SWD INTO THE CWFA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR ANOTHER LESS POTENT ROUND OF RAIN.
E-W THETA-E RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER SRN MS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...MORE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA
TUESDAY WITH WLY FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS AND STILL HINTS OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FINALLY SOME HOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...NOT LOOKING FOR A TOTAL CESSATION OF TSRA
BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SERVE TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT
AS WRN CONUS TROUGH AXIS LENDS SOME ASSISTANCE IN THE PROCESS. TEMPS
SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMS WITH MORE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...THIS IS JUNE AFTER ALL. RIDGE MAY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH
AS MODELS DIFFER ON BREAKING IT DOWN AGAIN IN MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMATOLOGY POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  84  71  88 /  70  40  40  50
MERIDIAN      71  86  70  88 /  70  40  40  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR FLASH FLOODING HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
LA...NONE.
AR...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR FLASH FLOODING ASHLEY...CHICOT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
272021-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MILES
AN HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO
SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT
THIS TIME...STRONGER WIND FIELDS AROUND 2 MILES ABOVE THE EARTHS
SURFACE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW
STRONG STORMS.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROSSETT ARKANSAS...TO
HOLLANDALE...VAIDEN...AND CRAWFORD MISSISSIPPI.  MORE INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.  HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

...CORRECTED CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... DAB