Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 261944
FFSJAN
ARC003-017-MSC151-262040-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ASHLEY AND CHICOT 
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 
340 PM CDT...

AT 244 PM CDT...WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A LINE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE DELTA REGION OF 
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  THE LINE STRETCHED 
FROM MERIDIAN ARKANSAS TO TRIBBETT MISSISSIPPI...AND REMAINED NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 
AND 1.5 INCHES FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF ASHLEY...CHICOT...AND 
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  BECAUSE THIS RAIN IS FALLING ON ALREADY 
SATURATED SOIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 340 PM.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN 
JACKSON.

$$

10

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 262050
FFSJAN
ARC003-017-MSC151-262145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES IN 
ARKANSAS...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...HAS EXPIRED...

AT 350 PM CDT...WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A PERSISTENT LINE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MERIDIAN ARKANSAS TO 
TRIBBETT MISSISSIPPI.  EVEN THOUGH THIS LINE HAS REMAINED NEARLY 
STATIONARY...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES...AS ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER 
RADAR...HAVE DIMINISHED.  FOR THIS REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN 
JACKSON.

$$

10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...THE SOGGY WEATHER CONTINUES.  PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  MY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS SEEN
IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.  I EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY...A LITTLE INSTABILITY...AND THE
FRONT COMBINE AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FURTHER SOUTH...A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
SEEN (MAINLY) MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN AVAILABLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF THIS COMPLEX
WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA...I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT TO ALLOW OUR SOUTHWESTERN PARISHES AND
COUNTIES TO GET MORE RAIN.

ALL THAT BEING SAID...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER TODAYS
FORECAST HIGHS (THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN) AND RAISE RAIN
CHANCES.  EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT IN
THE FIRST PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN
THE SOUTHWEST.

ISC GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT AND POSTED TO THE INTERNET.  AN
UPDATED TEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271000-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER TEXAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TODAY TO  SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL  SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME FLOODING WILL BE  POSSIBLE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.