Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE SOUTH. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ROUND IS ALSO ELEVATED. IN FACT, THE SOUNDINGS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS SOUNDINGS EXCEPT THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE A GOOD BIT HIGHER...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE RAIN. WITH THAT
SAID...THE SLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
HAIL (AGAIN).

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
AT TIMES AS THE SURFACE AND MIDDLE LEVEL LOW MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PARISHES OF LOUISIANA. AS IS THE CASE FOR LATER TONIGHT...TOMORROW
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL.

HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS...BUT PLAN NO UPDATES TO
THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MIDNIGHT...THUS VALIDATING THE 100
POPS THAT ARE GIVEN IN THE ZONES.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

18/HENRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
649 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
260033-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
649 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI....MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RAYVILLE
LOUISIANA...TO JACKSON...TO MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI LINE.	THE MAIN
RISK WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE	THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

...FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  OVERSPREAD THE
OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WATER WILL POND IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS
POOR. ALSO...RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY BECOME BANKFUL TO OVERFLOWING.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CROSSETT TO LEXINGTON TO MACON LINE
HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FULLY
SATURATED SOILS.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE LOW IS  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF  MISSISSIPPI.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT CREATED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL  PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A  FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL...EPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE EXISTING
FLOODING PROBLEMS AND CONTRIBUTE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME THERE THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO BE PRESENT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS....MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO HANDLE
POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.