Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR SOME GARBLED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CST WED FEB 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SERN TX THIS MORNING
TRACKING EWD ALONG I-10 AND SHOULD BE NEAR KLFT BY NOON AND THE MS
COAST BY 03Z TONIGHT. EXPECT BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER SRN
HALF OF CWFA BEFORE 21Z TODAY WITH RAINFALL RATES DECREASING BY THAT
TIME FROM W TO E. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TODAY HOWEVER MOSTLY
MODERATE PERSISTENT RATES EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A DECENT
WEEKEND AHEAD.

.SHORT TERM...FINAL ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS UNDERWAY WITH
HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT AMOUNTS OF NEAR 2 INCHES IN SERN MS. EXPECT A
LITTLE LESS CONVECTION AFTER MIDDAY AS AIRMASS COLUMN BEGINS COOLING
TOP TO BOTTOM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START DROPPING FROM THE
1.1 RANGE TO UNDER 0.75 BY EARLY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF
-24C AT 500MB CROSSES SRN MS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HOLDS UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THIS POOL SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT RAINS
TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING. LOW LEVEL
DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUNSHINE RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY WITH DECENT WARMUP AFTER FLIRTING WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS AT
SUNRISE.
&&

.LONG TERM...DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY STILL LOOKING GOOD AND SUNDAY
APPEARING TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH NEXT SRN STREAM IMPULSE
HEADING IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
ESTABLISHING A BROAD LONGWAVE MEAN TROUGH AXIS IN THE WRN CONUS FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
SPRING-STYLE STORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WITH EACH IMPULSE
ABOUT EVERY THIRD DAY OR SO.
&&

JACKSON   52  39  50  34 / 100  60  20  05
MERIDIAN  53  41  49  34 / 100  70  30  10
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
MS...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALL ZONES.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0420 AM CST WED FEB 25 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261020-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0420 AM CST WED FEB 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK  FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND  SOUTH MISSISSIPPI....MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JONESVILLE  LOUISIANA  TO FAYETTE TO LAUREL
MISSISSIPPI LINE.  THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE	THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

...FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA  TODAY.  RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT.	LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR.  FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
FOR TODAY.

WATER WILL POND IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS
POOR. ALSO...RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY BECOME BANKFUL TO OVERFLOWING.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CROSSETT TO LEXINGTON TO MACON LINE
HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FULLY
SATURATED SOILS.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  TODAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SURFACE LOW
IS  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF  MISSISSIPPI.  THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT CREATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL  PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A  FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA  LATE SUNDAY  INTO  SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME THERE THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO BE PRESENT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS....MAY BE NEEDED FOR TODAY TO HANDLE POTENTIAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.