Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION CHANCES/COVERAGE
TNT AHEAD OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
LONGER TERM CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL-WISE...NO BIG
DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH THE ETA OR GFS THIS FCST CYCLE BUT WILL TEND TO
CONTINUE TO SIDE MORE WITH THE ETA IN THE SHORTER TERM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DRY PUNCH
PUSHING INTO CNTRL IA AND NW MO EARLY THIS AFTN. MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MRNG
CONVECTION ACRS OUR FAR SE. SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION TRYING TO
DVLP AHEAD OF IA AND MO SHORTWAVE. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK
TROF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IL SWD THRU NRN ARKANSAS. MODERATE TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BNDRY...ESP OVER
SE MO NE INTO SE IL. CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST THRU SE IL THIS EVENING SO HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SE THIRD...WITH MORE SCATTERED WORDING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. LARGE STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND OUR AREA ON WED...BUT PARTLY SUNNY SHOULD
COVER IT FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS WED INTO THU MORNING. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS FURTHER WEST WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP THU MRNG AS THE HIGH IS SLOWER TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST. BEST
LOW AND MID LVL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA SO PRECIP CHANCES NOT INCLUDED IN THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TROFS
LOCATED ON THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL ACTIVITY IN OUR
AREA WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE AFFECTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. ONE
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND DRAG A FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES RESULTING
IN CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-071100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1132 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

HALL