Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE
SEVERE THREAT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CNTRL IL
THIS EVENING AND THEN TIMING OF COLD FRONT ACRS FCST AREA WED AND
PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ETA AGAIN THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS
FCST PERIOD AS IT HAS HANDLED BNDRY AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL
OVER THE PAST SVL DAYS. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FCST TO BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NRN END OF BOW ECHO SYSTEM THAT PUSHED ACRS SRN IL HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWING ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BUT SHOULDNT TAKE TOO LONG TO
RECOVER AS VSBL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TO OUR WEST WITH TEMPS
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP ACRS WRN IA WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE
AND BNDRY ACRS IOWA. MODELS SUGGEST ADDL DVLPMT LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
THE BNDRY WITH SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO ROTATE. PROFILES SHOWING 55 KNOTS AT 500 MB AT LATHROP
MISSOURI WITH SPEED MAX PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WEST CNTRL IL LATE IN
THE AFTN AND EVENING TO INTERACT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE BNDRY AS WELL
AS ANY MESOSCALE BNDRYS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTION LATE THIS MRNG.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
BNDRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. BASED ON THE
ETAS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST
INTO EARLY AFTN WITH A SHIFT IN CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE FCST AREA. LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO OUR WEST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOME
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME PRECIP AS WELL
WITH THE RETURN FLOW THURSDAY BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE ETAS SOLUTION.
FOR NOW...WL KEEP THU DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN LATER
FCSTS IF THE ETA CONTINUES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS TO DVLP WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP TO OUR WEST.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO BUILD ACRS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
SVL DAYS. A RETURN TO VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH
ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACRS THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1125 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BYRD