Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POPS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ESPECIALLY MCS ACTIVITY TNGT

TDAY-TNGT: MCS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, SO WL KEEP POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WL HAVE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. FEEL THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY, WITH MOISTURE KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK.

ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER WAVE WL KICK OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEBRASKA. AT THE SFC A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR SW KS. STORMS WL
INITIATE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NW KS AND SW NE. THESE STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE WHICH WL BE
SITUATED TO THE SE. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA. SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. ONE ELEMENT NOT LACKING WL BE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MUCH LIKE THE PASSED COUPLE
OF NIGHTS, THE LLJ WL INCREASE AND VEER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
THIS WL FEED THE SW PORTION OF THE MCS KEEPING THIS COMPLEX GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ANOTHER MCS ALSO COMES A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR FLOODING. SO WL EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUE MORNING AND
ALSO EXPAND TO INCLUDE CENTRAL KS.

TUE-WED: STORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON.  A SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGE WL THEN MAKE A
CAMEO FOR WED NGT. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGH WL THEN COMMENCE FOR WED
WHICH WL INCREASE OUR SOUTH WINDS. TEMPS TUE WL BE A BIT COOLER DUE
TO THE WEAK FRONT PASSING SOUTH. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WED
AS SOUTH WINDS AN GOOD MIXING GET GOING.

THU-SUN:
DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WX, ONLY TOOK A BRIEF LOOK AT THE EXTENDED. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA,
WHICH SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE TRACK OF UPPER IMPULSES. SO WOULD NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NIGHT AFTER NIGHT LIKE WE HAVE HAD
LATELY. WITH THIS SAID, STILL FEEL SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IS STILL A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALMOST
EVERY DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DIVE SE AT NIGHT TOWARDS THE
BETTER MOISTURE. JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE WITH LACK
OF ORGANIZATION. SO KEPT POPS AT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO AS MOIST GROUND SHOULD INHIBIT AN
EXTREME WARM UP.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  68  84  62 /  10  60  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  67  82  62 /  10  70  20  10
NEWTON          90  68  82  62 /  20  70  20  10
ELDORADO        90  68  84  63 /  20  60  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  69  86  64 /  20  60  30  20
RUSSELL         89  62  81  59 /  10  70  10   5
GREAT BEND      89  64  81  60 /   5  70  10  10
SALINA          92  68  82  61 /  10  70  20   5
MCPHERSON       91  68  82  62 /  10  70  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  86  65 /  30  60  50  20
CHANUTE         88  69  84  63 /  30  70  50  10
IOLA            88  69  84  63 /  30  70  50  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&

7/LAWSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNSET IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS WILL PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL TRY AND FORM
INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT, AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
FOR INFORMATION ON THIS FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ/KETCHAM

KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068-082-083-091-092-050900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER WATCH UPDATE MESSAGE...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, NUMBER 556, HAS BEEN CANCELLED
AND IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS:

LINCOLN, RUSSELL, SALINE, ELLSWORTH, BARTON, MCPHERSON, MARION,
CHASE, RICE, RENO, SEDGWICK, HARVEY, KINGMAN, SUMNER AND
HARPER.

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
07/05/2004  60 MPH           ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     HAIL             MADISON                 38.13N 96.14W
07/05/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
424 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     TSTM WND GST     YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
07/05/2004  60 MPH           WOODSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
432 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             BENEDICT                37.62N 95.74W
07/05/2004  0.75 INCH        WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     HAIL             13 ESE YATES CENTER     37.80N 95.52W
07/05/2004  0.75 INCH        ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWSON