Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVE/TNGT:
ATMOSPHERE IS RECHARGING ITSELF AS SUN BEGINS TO BREAK OUT FROM
OVERNIGHT STORMS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING E INTO TX PANHANDLE WHICH IS TRYING TO PHASE WITH WITH
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE
TRYING TO HOLD DOWN THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO FIRE
LATER THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT WAS IN CENTRAL OK
BUT SHOULD MIX NORTHWARD AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER TX PANHANDLE.

STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KS AND ALONG
OUTFLOW/SEMI WARM FRONT BOUNDARY MIXING NORTH IN S CENTRL KS. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HRS WHICH WILL CAUSE STORMS TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A ISOLATED TORNADO IN S CENTRAL GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR...EVEN WITH LCLS A BIT HIGH. SFC WINDS SHOULD BACK
SOME ACROSS S CENTRL KS WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FORM A POSSIBLE MCS WHICH SHOULD
MOVE E/SE. MANY LOCATIONS SAW HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT...THEREFORE ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS SO
WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SRN/SERN KS WITH THIS IN MIND.

MON-MON NIGHT:
EXPECT MCS TO BE ONGOING IN ERN KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
REST OF THE AREA CLEARING OUT.  UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS SUNSHINE RETURNS, SO WITH AFTN HEATING, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT.  NEXT IN
A SERIES OF S/WV MOVES INTO THE AREA BY MON AFTN,  WITH CAP LESS
THAN TDY EXPECT RAPID DVLPMNT OF CONVECTION.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SVR AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TMRW, WITH TNGTS CONVECTION
PLAYING A ROLE IN THESE DECISIONS.

TUE:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUES
HELPING TO MOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MOVING ACROSS KS.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SRN HALF
OF KS, AS SOME POST FRONTAL SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PREFER ETA
GUID NUMBERS FOR HIGHS

WED-THU:
SFC RIDGE AND NW FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK HELPING
TO DRY US OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WILL MODERATE TEMPS WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FRI-SUN:
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPS TO THE AREA
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STAY WEST
OF THE AREA ON FRI, SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI
NIGHT, WITH THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHC RETURNING.  WILL INSERT
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AS WEAK S/WVS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  91  68  83 /  50  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      69  90  67  82 /  60  30  40  30
NEWTON          69  90  67  81 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        70  90  68  83 /  50  30  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  92  69  85 /  50  30  40  30
RUSSELL         67  88  63  79 /  60  30  40  20
GREAT BEND      68  89  64  80 /  60  30  40  20
SALINA          69  90  66  81 /  50  30  40  20
MCPHERSON       69  90  66  81 /  50  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  91  70  85 /  50  30  40  30
CHANUTE         70  89  68  83 /  50  30  40  30
IOLA            70  89  68  83 /  50  30  40  30
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
&&

JAKUB/KETCHAM/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNSET IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS WILL PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL TRY AND FORM
INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT, AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
FOR INFORMATION ON THIS FLOODING THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ/KETCHAM