Tornado Warning 24, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF MCS MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH OUR SW ZONES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF TORNADOES TODAY IN THE
MORALES AREA AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN JACKSON COUNTY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 4 PM AND WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT POINT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WE MIGHT GET A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE COLUMN LATE TNGT/WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING THE DRYING BETWEEN SYSTEMS...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL TSRA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH JUST 30 POPS WITH MUCH
LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. PER GFS...PWS INCREASE TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES
AGAIN THURSDAY. AGAIN...NO CAPPING AND WEAK DIFLUENCE ALOFT SO WILL
STICK WITH 50 POPS.

BOTH ETA/GFS BRING TAIL END OF THE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS TEXAS
FRI/SAT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MCS ACTIVITY FORMING TO OUR NORTH THAT
COULD AFFECT SE TX. GFS/ETA SHOW MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER
LATE THU WHICH COULD PROGRESS INTO SE TX LATE THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
COULD SEE ANOTHER MCS AFFECT THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. GFS
FORECASTS PWS OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES FRI-SAT...WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE
ALOFT AND NO CAPPING. BOTH MODELS BRING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX AND
STALL FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN
FOR SE TX AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FOCUS
TSRA. WILL GO 50 POPS BOTH DAYS BUT MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER ON.
&&

.MARINE...
MCS MAY AFFECT THE BAYS THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WILL ISSUE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 EXPIRES AT 2100Z.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WATERS FROM 00 TO 60 NM OUT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  69 85 70 84 70 / 40 30 20 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH)          70 85 72 84 71 / 50 30 20 50 30
GALVESTON(GLS)         73 81 73 81 73 / 50 30 20 50 30
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...
...THREAT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RESIDENTS OF COLORADO...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO ESPECIALLY MONITOR THE
STORMS TODAY. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE
TRAVELING TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS IS COMMON IN A
TROPICAL AIRMASS...AND SOMETIMES THE FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ210>213-226-227-235>238-112100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-WALLER-WHARTON-
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 4 PM. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON METRO AREA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BAND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO YOUR
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR VISIT OUR
WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX FOR MORE INFORMATION.