Tornado Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.UPDATE...
SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS (GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10) UNTIL 2100Z. MONITORING
BOW ECHO WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH CRP CWA. THESE
STORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ALSO...THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY STORMS THAT
FORM AHEAD OF THIS BAND. WILL UPDATE ZFP FOR WATCH.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR SE TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ONE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST HELPING TO FLARE UP THE STORMS
OVER OUR SW ZONES...WITH ANOTHER ONE TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS. THE STORMS OVER OUR SW ZONES HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING.

12Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. GPSMET ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGHEST
PWS OVER SRN HALF OF SE TX WITH VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST. IN LATEST QPFERD...HPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TX IN ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN ENHANCING LIFT WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE OUTFLOWS HELPING
TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL UP POPS TO 70 PERCENT AND MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES.

WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING COLORADO...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 UNTIL 2100Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  81 69 85 69 85 / 70 40 40 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH)          81 70 85 70 85 / 70 40 40 20 40
GALVESTON(GLS)         79 73 81 73 81 / 70 40 40 20 40
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...
...THREAT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RESIDENTS OF COLORADO...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO ESPECIALLY MONITOR THE
STORMS TODAY. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE
TRAVELING TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS IS COMMON IN A
TROPICAL AIRMASS...AND SOMETIMES THE FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ210>213-226-227-235>238-112100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-WALLER-WHARTON-
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 4 PM. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON METRO AREA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BAND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO YOUR
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR VISIT OUR
WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX FOR MORE INFORMATION.