Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1115 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

.UPDATE...
SPC WILL BE ISSUING A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS (ROUGHLY I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD) UNTIL 400
PM...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON METRO AREAS. THIS REPLACES THE
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER THIS MORNING. MCS PROGRESSING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SHOULD REACH HOUSTON AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONGEST STORMS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN END
WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AND CELL MERGERS ARE TAKING
PLACE. THIS WILL PUT THE COASTAL COUNTIES MOST UNDER THE GUN FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BUT STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADD THE NEW WATCH AND TO LOWER TEMPS FIRST
PERIOD.

35/43/46/31/34/DH

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 21Z SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX.
SCEC BAYS.
SCA COASTAL WATERS 0 TO 60 NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 61 81 60 81 / 100 20 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH)         73 63 83 62 82 / 100 30 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS)       75 67 78 67 78 / 100 30 10 10 10

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
657 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-062100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
657 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
RELATIVELY WARM AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. THE NATURE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE
INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING
COMBINES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.