Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LIES FROM VICTORIA TO HOUSTON TO
BEAUMONT. MESOSCALE VORT IS LOCATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH HAS
BEEN GENERATING THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THAT AREA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST
IN THE DEL RIO AREA...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX TODAY.
GPSMET DATA SHOWS HIGH PWS IN PLACE WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NRN ZONES. WITH TWO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA...DEEP MOISTURE AND A SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE...ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT
TODAY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS SE 2/3RDS AND LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST.
WILL EXTEND FFA UNTIL 21Z. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES SE HALF TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. THE GREATEST FLOOD THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN THE LAST
FEW DAYS. WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWOHGX. WILL DROP CAUTION
FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE STORMS BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD
INTO TONIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERES NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A NEW SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY REINFORCING THE 500 MB TROF IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHILE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE CONTINUES. WILL GO LIKELY POPS
FRI/SAT/SUN...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS AT NIGHT. HPC DAY 2 QPF
OUTLOOK HAS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES FOR SE TX. WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES FRIDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF BUILDS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS SE TX. GFS/UKMET ALSO BUILD IN RIDGING FROM THE EAST BUT
DONT REALLY SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING UNTIL TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD AND TEMPS UPWARD GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

35/30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA ALL OF SOUTHEAST TX UNTIL 21Z TODAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 72 88 71 86 / 70 40 60 40 60
HOUSTON(IAH)          85 73 87 73 85 / 90 50 70 50 60
GALVESTON (GLS)       84 76 86 77 84 / 90 50 70 50 60
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...
...ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PROBABLE...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THROUGH TODAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. JACKSON...WHARTON...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
THE HARDEST HIT WITH UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH FLOODING ONGOING IN
SOME AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERATING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY
CONTINUING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.