Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH LIES FROM VICTORIA TO HOUSTON TO
BEAUMONT. MESOSCALE VORT IS LOCATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH HAS
BEEN GENERATING THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THAT AREA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST
IN THE DEL RIO AREA...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX TODAY.
GPSMET DATA SHOWS HIGH PWS IN PLACE WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NRN ZONES. WITH TWO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA...DEEP MOISTURE AND A SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE...ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT
TODAY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS SE 2/3RDS AND LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST.
WILL EXTEND FFA UNTIL 21Z. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES SE HALF TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. THE GREATEST FLOOD THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN THE LAST
FEW DAYS. WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWOHGX. WILL DROP CAUTION
FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE STORMS BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE FFA BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD
INTO TONIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERES NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A NEW SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY REINFORCING THE 500 MB TROF IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHILE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE CONTINUES. WILL GO LIKELY POPS
FRI/SAT/SUN...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS AT NIGHT. HPC DAY 2 QPF
OUTLOOK HAS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES FOR SE TX. WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES FRIDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF BUILDS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS SE TX. GFS/UKMET ALSO BUILD IN RIDGING FROM THE EAST BUT
DONT REALLY SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING UNTIL TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD AND TEMPS UPWARD GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

35/30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA ALL OF SOUTHEAST TX UNTIL 21Z TODAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 72 88 71 86 / 70 40 60 40 60
HOUSTON(IAH)          85 73 87 73 85 / 90 50 70 50 60
GALVESTON (GLS)       84 76 86 77 84 / 90 50 70 50 60
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
345 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...
...ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PROBABLE
...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE AVERAGED 1 TO 3 INCHES
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH TOTALS OF 3 TO 8
INCHES OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF JACKSON...MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA...AND
GALVESTON COUNTIES.

THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...
THESE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
BRIEF TORNADOES TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ARE
TURNING WITH HEIGHT SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE THIS THREAT. THIS TURNING
IS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS SLOWLY ADVANCING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.