Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BUSY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AS A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED
WITH THE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SINCE THE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...WILL
GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT
MUCH CHANGE WILL BE MADE FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE. AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. 46/43/42/30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH FOR AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  63 80 65 81 65 / 40 60 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH)          70 81 66 81 66 / 40 60 50 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS)        74 80 70 81 70 / 40 60 50 50 30

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
849 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
849 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM...

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. THESE STORMS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM MOIST AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE INLAND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM
LAST NIGHT TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RESIDENTS OF POLK...BURLESON...
BRAZOS...COLORADO...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
THE HARDEST HIT THUS FAR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CHANNEL A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PROTRACTED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINS.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GROUND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURATED AND THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO
EXTENSIVE RUNOFF. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT
BY NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
840 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ164-176>179-195>200-211-212-131900-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
840 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-10 THROUGH 2 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH...BURLESON...BRAZOS...GRIMES...MADISON...WASHINGTON...AUSTIN...
TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...TRINITY AND SAN
JACINTO. THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH
AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING RAINS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ178-179-197-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
132200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-
HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-10 THROUGH 5 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON.

THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING RAINS.

TXZ164-176-177-195-196-198-132200-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-MADISON-TRINITY-WALKER-
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH...AND ARE NO
LONGER A SEVERE THREAT.