Tornado Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT AXIS ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CAPES NOW
EXCEED 2500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INDICATE 0-3 KM HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE ROTATION IN STORMS WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
ONE OF THE INTITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS
ONE OF THE WEAKER ROTATING STORMS OF THE DAY...MAY HAVE PRODUCED A
WEAK TORNADO IN SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY...SO ANY STORMS EXHIBITING
MODERATE ROTATION WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK OUR INTEREST THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO EAST TENN AT THIS TIME...
WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF AL AND GA.
THE HEAVIEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY
EAST TENN...AND THIS IS ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AS COVERAGE HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WHERE HIGH LIKELIES SHOULD SUFFICE. AS FAR AS THE FLOOD
WATCH...ALTHOUGH THE WATCH AREA MAY BE BETWEEN MAXIMA IN RAINFALL...
WITH HEAVIER CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP TO OUR WEST...AND CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...RAIN RATES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
IN THE WATCH AREA AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE WESTERN
SLOPES. CONSIDERING THE LOW FFG VALUES...WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SILENT 20S NORTH. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH FROM TIME TO
TIME...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA.

LANE
&&

.LONG TERM...
WED-FRI...ACTIVE AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. STUBBORN AND STRONG WESTERN BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALLOW AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HUDSON LOW
TO REINFORCE ITSELF. BASED ON LATEST GFS...BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN ITS USUAL POSITION...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN NORMAL. THIS
SHOULD PERMIT A COUPLE COLD FRONTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SO...WITH A
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING HIGH...WILL FORECAST POPS EACH DAY. KEPT MAX
TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...BASED ON CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT AIR MASS MIXING EXPECTED.

SBK
&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS WILL REQUIRE COMBINATION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AND
VCTS TO HANDLE TIMING OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR THEREABOUTS...AFTER WHICH MVFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS WINDS COME AROUND TO N OR NE
DIRECTION BEHIND FRONT...BUT WILL RETAIN MVFR CEILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD OWING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SEEN NEAR
BOUNDARY.

MOORE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  68  85  67  84 /  60  30  30  30
AND  69  86  68  85 /  60  30  30  40
CLT  69  85  66  83 /  60  30  30  30
HKY  67  83  62  80 /  60  30  20  20
AVL  64  81  61  78 /  60  30  20  30
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT GAZ010-017.

NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
NCZ033>034-048>055-058>059-062>067.

SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT SCZ001>003.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-260939-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
541 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT TO
LOCATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (CAEFFAGSP) FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(CAESPSGSP) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-252200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ANDERSON           34.49N 82.61W
06/25/2004                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            UNKNOWN VEHICLE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ON SAMUEL CAMP ROAD
            AND MIDDLETON ROAD.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTERSVILLE            35.42N 80.85W
06/25/2004                   MECKLENBURG        NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR KERNS ROAD.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S GAFFNEY             35.04N 81.66W
06/25/2004                   CHEROKEE           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR THICKETY CREEK
            SOUTH OF GAFFNEY.

&&

SBK