Tornado Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...AND MAY NOT UNTIL IT STARTS TO FEEL THE EASTWARD PUSH OF
THE VORT CENTER SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MS/AL/WRN TN. THIS
WILL HAVE MULTIPLE EFFECTS ON THE AFTERNOON WEATHER. THE AREA EAST
OF INTERSTATE 85...AND ESPECIALLY METRO CLT...WILL SEE A BIT MORE
SUN AND WILL PROBABLY WARM A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE
RAISED AS MUCH AS A CATEGORY...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN SC WHERE RAIN
COVERAGE HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN. INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM OVER THE PIEDMONT...SO THINK THAT GRADIENT OF
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EVEN THOUGH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL PROBABLY REMAIN W OF THE
MTNS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED.
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE PERHAPS A BIT MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF FLASH FLOOD
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 405 AM.
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE FA TODAY AS FRONTAL
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. REGIONAL RADAR ALREADY SHOWS THE
COMMA-HEAD PRECIP TRACKING NE THIS MORNING. ETA AND GFS BRING THE
HEAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 15Z-00Z...WITH GOOD UPSLOPE TAKING
PLACE FROM 15-21Z. HPC HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA WITH AN ISOLD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...WITH WIDESPREAD QPF >1. PWS APPROACH 2 THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF
THE MOISTURE...SOME STORMS LIKELY PRODUCING AROUND 2/HR. SUCH A
RATE WILL EXCEED FFG...HAVE POSTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IF THE
ETA IS CORRECT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
UNTIL 6Z...WILL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE WATCH
IS WARRANTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...SVR TS MAY ALSO BE ON THE DOCKET FOR
TODAY. REASONABLE T/TD ON THE MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPES
>2K J/KG WITH WINDS 30KT AT H85 AND HIGHER. HOWEVER...HIGH FZ
LEVELS AND MOIST AIR WILL LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION. PRIMARY SVR THREAT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS. SPC SHOWS THE ENTIRE FA
IN A SLGT RISK TODAY...WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT.

ETA AND GFS DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND IF THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS PREFERRED WILL ADOPT A
COMPROMISE AND WILL FORECAST THE FRONTAL POSITION TO REMAIN
IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING A CHC FOR
SH/TS INTO THE EARLY WEEK...BECOMING MORE DIURNAL. OMEGA BLOCK TO
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO UNRAVEL...HOWEVER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...WILL MODIFY CURRENT
FORECAST.

LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE BEYOND MONDAY.

NED/RAB
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT GAZ010-017.

NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
NCZ033>034-048>055-058>059-062>067.

SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT SCZ001>003.
&&

MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-260939-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
541 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT TO
LOCATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (CAEFFAGSP) FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(CAESPSGSP) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-252200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ANDERSON           34.49N 82.61W
06/25/2004                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            UNKNOWN VEHICLE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ON SAMUEL CAMP ROAD
            AND MIDDLETON ROAD.

&&

SBK