Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE LINE STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF OHX TO NEAR JKL THIS
MORNING WITH TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWFA. SHEAR PROFILES STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH 850 MB
WINDS PROGGED TO REACH 50 KT TOWARD 12Z AS FLOW GOES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFS CONT TO EXIST WITH MCS MOVING
THROUGH REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFS FEATURING FASTER TIMING.
ETA FIELDS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING MEANS EASTERN PIEDMONT SECTIONS COULD
REALIZE IMPROVED INSTABILITY BEFORE SURFACE COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS WEST EARLY TO LOWEST EAST AND THEN
REVERSE THE PATTERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DEEP DRYING SHOULD THEN SET IN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS AREA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN DEEP ROTATING VORTEX
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND MOIST BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TUE. MOISTURE WILL THEN STEADILY RECOVER THROUGH WED WITH ETA
FEATURING NEXT SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMICS ROTATING IN FROM GREAT LAKES
LOW BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ERN TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH FRI. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  83  62  86  63 /  60  20  10  10
AND  84  62  86  64 /  60  20  10  10
CLT  86  62  87  64 /  50  20  10  10
HKY  83  59  84  61 /  60  20  10  10
AVL  78  57  81  57 /  70  20  20  10
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-310920-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. ANY REMNANTS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK ON MEMORIAL DAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...COULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY...BUT MAY BE REQUIRED ON
MEMORIAL DAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1101 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-311000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1101 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA
TO EAST TEXAS LATE SUNDAY EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES EXTENDED AS FAR
EAST AS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES FURTHER EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INTENSITY TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...
SHIFTING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

LANE