Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONGER FLOW IS RESULTING IN
FASTER MOVEMENT OF CELLS THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND LEE CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. THREAT OF PULSE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
MULTICELL CLUSTER OR TWO.

SW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHEAST U.S.
ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ETA MIXES OUT DEWPOINT IN THE LEE TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S TOMORROW...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITHIN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGIME. HOWEVER...LEE TROUGH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE TO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL
INCREASE JUST A BIT MORE TOMORROW...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED ALONG OUTFLOWS LAID DOWN BY HIGH
TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH CONVECTION. MOS POPS TOMORROW ARE VERY
LOW...PROBABLY DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT OUR FORECAST WILL
FEATURE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
(BASICALLY ALL AREAS IN AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS)...WITH SILENT 20S
SOUTH. WILL ESSENTIALLY USE THIS SAME ARGUMENT TO JUSTIFY HIGHER
POPS FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
MID-WEEK...AS THE TRAIN OF NORTHERN U.S. SW TROUGHS CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO SAG CLOSE
TO...OR PERHAPS INTO THE CWFA DURING MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AT THE VERY
LEAST...THIS WILL RENDER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MCS/S DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DROPPING E/SE. IN
FACT...THE GFS TRACKS AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA
DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WILL SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MODELS ARE DEPICTING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD MARKED BY THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER SFC
FNT DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY
RETURNING NWD SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE LEAST CHC OF PRECIP. HAVE LOWERED POP TO 20 CWFA WIDE FOR
AFT/EVE CONVECTION. FNT NOT A SURE THING. IN FACT...ENSEMBLE MEAN
POP SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER XCPT FOR AVL. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A 30
POP MTNS...20 POP ELSEWHERE FOR AFT/EVE CONVECTION SAT AND AGAIN
SUN. TRENDED TEMPS UP FROM PREV FCST THESE DAYS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS
THE OPERATIONAL MOS SINCE THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREV
FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  68  90  67  89 /  40  20  10  20
AND  67  91  67  90 /  30  20  10  20
CLT  67  91  66  90 /  40  20  20  20
HKY  67  89  64  89 /  40  30  20  30
AVL  59  85  60  85 /  40  30  20  30
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

LANE/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240934-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
535 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPSGSP FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
12 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-232000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
12 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED QUITE EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
INDICATING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR EXPANDED COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...BEGINNING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT INITIATING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS A BIT LATER.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. SINCE THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT 10 TO
15 MPH...DECREASING THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF
RECEIVING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND POSSIBLY STREAMS.
PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD STAY ALERT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR HEAVY RAIN UPSTREAM THAT MAY CAUSE UNEXPECTED RISES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP

LAMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

NCZ052-053-059-063>065-SCZ001>005-231756-
BUNCOMBE NC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  ONE CLUSTER...CENTERED AROUND LAKE JOCASSEE IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE
MOVING FROM CASHIERS AND WHITEWATER FALLS...TOWARD ROSMAN AND
BREVARD.  ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST
BUNCOMBE COUNTY...SOUTH ACROSS THE ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT
AREA...TO THE HENDERSONVILLE AREA.  THESE WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH...GENERALLY TOWARD ASHEVILLE AND LAKE LURE.  THESE STORMS
WERE LIKELY CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL...AND COULD BECOME
SEVERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             MARION                  35.68N 82.01W
05/23/2004  0.75 INCH        MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN
            IN THE CITY.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW MARION            35.69N 82.04W
05/23/2004                   MCDOWELL           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROAD BETWEEN TOMS CREEK AND PLEASANT GARDENS BLOCKED BY
            NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES. FIREFIGHTERS ENROUTE TO CLEAN IT
            UP.

0258 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARION                  35.68N 82.01W
05/23/2004                   MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN CITY. ONE PERSON TRAPPED IN VEHICLE.
            WATER RESCUE POSSIBLY UNDERWAY.

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW MARION             35.72N 82.06W
05/23/2004                   MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES BLOCKING NC-80 NEAR LAKE
            TAHOMA. ALSO SOME STREET FLOODING IN TOMS CREEK.

&&

LAMB