Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY OF A SIMILAR PATTERN...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND A FEW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON LAST FEW DAYS...CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WITH A BIT MORE DRY AIR ALOFT. CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG BASED ON FORECAST MAX IN UPPER 80S. NO GSO SOUNDING
FOR 00Z OR 12Z PROBABLY DUE TO EQUIP PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...RNK AND FFC
SKEW-T/S SEEM FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF OUR CWA TODAY. MEAN FLOW IS
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH A MEAN STORM MOTION CLOSER TO 14 KNOTS.
BACK-BUILDING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN TODAY.
HOPEFULLY WILL NOT HAVE STRONG CELLS DUMPING 4-6 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SUMMERTIME NUMBERS...30 FOR
MOST AREAS EXCEPT HIGHER IN MOUNTAINS AND LESS IN THE LOW COUNTRY.
GOING MAX TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

LAMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240934-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
535 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPSGSP FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
12 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-232000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
12 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED QUITE EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
INDICATING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR EXPANDED COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...BEGINNING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT INITIATING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS A BIT LATER.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. SINCE THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT 10 TO
15 MPH...DECREASING THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF
RECEIVING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND POSSIBLY STREAMS.
PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD STAY ALERT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR HEAVY RAIN UPSTREAM THAT MAY CAUSE UNEXPECTED RISES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP

LAMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

NCZ052-053-059-063>065-SCZ001>005-231756-
BUNCOMBE NC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  ONE CLUSTER...CENTERED AROUND LAKE JOCASSEE IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE
MOVING FROM CASHIERS AND WHITEWATER FALLS...TOWARD ROSMAN AND
BREVARD.  ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST
BUNCOMBE COUNTY...SOUTH ACROSS THE ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT
AREA...TO THE HENDERSONVILLE AREA.  THESE WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH...GENERALLY TOWARD ASHEVILLE AND LAKE LURE.  THESE STORMS
WERE LIKELY CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL...AND COULD BECOME
SEVERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS.

JONES