Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...

RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ATTM. W/V DISPLAYING VORT MAX OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NE THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS AND
CONTRAILS AHEAD OF THE VORT HAVE LIMITED HEATING OVER THE UPSTATE
AND THE NC FTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING THE CU
FIELD ENHANCING OVER THE CLT METRO...WITH LAPS ESTIMATING CIN/CAPE
OF -15/1900 J/KG AT 18Z. AS VORT PASSES OVER THE FA WILL EXPECT MTN
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND CONVECTION TO THE EAST TO INITIATE.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO CATE OVER THE MTNS AND CHC TO THE EAST.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO ASHES
OUT LATE THIS EVENING...HOLDING ON THE MTN POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE THE ISSUANCE OF THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT.

MON...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER...A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPS AROUND 600MB. MESOETA CAPES REMAIN LESS THAN 500 AND
CIN 20-50. WITH LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED WILL LIMIT POPS TO MTN CHCS.
TUE...H5 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC AND S/W RIDES UP FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH. INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT FOR TUES...AT LEAST THE
NEGATIVE AREA DECREASES. TIMING OF THE ETA VORT WILL BRING IT OVER
THE CWA AROUND PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE MAV/FWC/MET
INCREASE POPS TO CHC AND WILL AT LEAST MATCH. RECENT HISTORY SHOWS
THAT MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TOO LOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL
MAXIMIZE POPS AT HIGH CHC OVER THE BALSAMS.

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN IS VERY SLOW TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOWING FA ON THE EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AHEAD OF L/W TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE HIGH
TERRAIN POPS AND WILL SPREAD CHC ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SAT AND SUN.
TEMPS INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  61  84  61  81 /  30  10  10  30
AND  60  83  61  81 /  30  10  10  30
CLT  60  87  62  84 /  30  10  10  30
HKY  60  85  60  81 /  30  10  10  30
AVL  55  79  56  76 /  50  30  20  40
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

NED/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091232-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-100400-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SCATTERED STORM FORMATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING AND ALMOST STATIONARY NATURE
OF THESE STORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG ISOLATED
AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THESE STORMS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             2 S DREXEL              35.73N 81.61W
05/09/2004  0.75 INCH        BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT SUN MAY 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             STONY POINT             35.87N 81.05W
05/09/2004  1.25 INCH        ALEXANDER          NC   PUBLIC

&&

SBK