Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR LOCATION/TIMING
OF ANICIPATED CONVECTION. MOUNTAIN AREAS FIRING OFF A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN AFTER BEING WORKED OVER LAST EVENING.
NOTICED A SPURRIOUS OUTFLOW CROSSING THE UPSTATE TOWARDS KCEU ON 88D
THIS MORNING AND A STEADY STATE TS HAS FORMED OVER ABBEYVILLE COUNTY
ON SOME SORT OF LL BOUNDARY. ALSO...A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION OBSERVED
IN THE NW PIEDMONT. ABOUT THE ONLY CONSTANT IS THAT THE WHOLE CWA IS
UNSTABLE WITH LATEST LAPS LIS IN THE -5 TO -8 RANGE...CAPES OVER
2000 J/KG. WATER VAPER AND MODEL ANALYSIS HAVE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN GA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

SEEMS LIKE CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF WHEREVER IT PLEASES TODAY AND
WILL NOT TRY TO PEG DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS. BASICALLY...EXPECT LIKELY
POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...CHANCE NORTH. IN THE
UPSTATE...NE GA...AND THE REST OF NC...RAISED POPS TO CHANCE. OF
COURSE...SEVERE CRITERIA COULD BE MET TODAY AND HAVE REFRESHED THE
SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. RADAR
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. SOUTHERN
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST...UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED SATURDAY
EVENING. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CONVECTION THIS
MORNING COULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR
NOW WILL JUST INDICATE MORNING CONVECTION.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

KRENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091232-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOORE

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-092200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1113 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AS THE CASE ON SATURDAY...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND MAY
RESULT IN EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP