Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 021417
FFSGSP
NCC121-021530-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1130 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

RAINFALL SINCE MID MORNING HAS BEEN LIGHT AND LIMITED TO EXTREME 
SOUTHERN MITCHELL BUT RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN JUST DOWNSTREAM IN 
MCDOWELL COUNTY THAT WAS MOVING NORTH. THIS BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE 
INTO ALTAPASS...SPRUCE PINE AND ESTATOE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 
THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WARNING COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS
FEEDER CREEKS INTO THE NORTH TOE RIVER.

COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FLOODING AROUND
ALTAPASS...BUT PARTS OF CARPENTER ISLAND ROAD REMAIN CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING FROM THE NORTH TOE RIVER. FLOODING COULD BECOME A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTH TOE AS HEAVY RAIN 
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE WARNING MAY 
NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEDGER.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3590 8214 3582 8214 3586 8205 3589 8195
      3592 8203 3600 8207 3599 8219

$$
BURRUS

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 021536
FFSGSP
NCC121-021600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 1130 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 1130 AM...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER LEVELS RECEDING
ON CARPENTER ISLAND ROAD...ON THE NORTH TOE RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF ALTAPASS. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER FLOODING WAS REPORTED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS IN MITCHELL 
COUNTY...AND COULD ISSUE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

LAT...LON 3590 8214 3582 8214 3586 8205 3589 8195
      3592 8203 3600 8207 3599 8219

$$
BURRUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH TYPE IN CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT SURFACE
AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT PERSISTS. MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHILE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN N GA
MOVES N INOT UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TOWARD HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER ENTIRE ESCARPMENT AND MOST OF
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND RUN THROUGH AFTERNOON TO COVER
RUNOFF. CATEGORICAL POPS IN W TODAY TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE E WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM NE TOWARD MID DAY. ETA SLOWER THAN GFS
TO DRY OUT...AND HAVE COMPROMISED WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVNEING TO SLIGHT CHACNE E. BY LATE EVENING DRY/STABLE AIR
MOVE SE ACROSS AREA...LINGERING UNTIL SAT WHEN GRADIENT BETWEEN
HURRICANE FRANCES AND SURFACE RIDGE TO NE TIGHTENS...DRIVING
MOISTURE E FROM PIEDMONT TO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
RATHER LOW AS COOL/DRY AIR MOVES SW ACROSS AREA. DEW POINTS BEGIN TO
RECOVER SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING HURRICANE FRANCES...WILL PUMP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT ANY TIME IN THE
PERIOD FROM MECHANICAL FORCING. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE SO
EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

FRANCES REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. MOST RECENT HPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST...BUT AGAIN...THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK INFORMATION. THE MEDIUM RANGE
GRIDS WILL REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIP OF NC TUESDAY EVENING AND NERN TN TUESDAY NITE. A MORE
WESTERN TRACK WOULD BRING MORE OF A SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE STARTED TO RAMP UP POP HIGHER IN
THE CHANCE RANGE STARTING LATE MONDAY...AND HAVE EXTENDED POP THRU
DAY 6. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED A
CATEGORY FOR MAX TEMPS MONDAY OWING TO MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXPECT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SOME DRYING WL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NC ZONES TOWARD MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE MAV MOS HAS CIGS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 FEET ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND THE NC MTNS...WHILE IT ONLY HAS VFR CIGS FARTHER
INTO THE WEDGE AT KHKY AND KCLT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION FAIRLY
CLOSELY...THOUGH I DIDN/T TAKE CIGS DOWN QUITE AS QUICKLY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...THOUGH AS I TYPE IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR CIGS ARE INDEED
SETTING UP EARLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE. ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER CIGS AT CLT AROUND SUNRISE. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO SHRA AT KGSP
AND KAND...THEN ONLY VCSH INTO THE EARLY AFTN AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WL
KEEP SHRA/TSRA GOING. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE...DO
NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE WORDING AT KCLT TDA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028 TODAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
     NCZ033-034-049-050-053>055-059-062>067 TODAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>006-010 TODAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-030922-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
523 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND MOST OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND ISOLATED EAST OF INTERSTATE 77.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
SCATTERED WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 BY EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...REACHING NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07