Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AT PRESENT...AND THIS CHANGES VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TUESDAY. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS
PRESENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER WILL WOBBLE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUND. CHALLENGE WILL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD. THREAT
FOR SEVERE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ASCERTAINED. ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY. TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE REMAINS A DIFFICULT TASK.
FEEL STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL REGION AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHERN LWR MI THIS EVENING EITHER NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FEEL
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE DIURNAL BOOST IN
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND ALSO A THREAT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
CORES ALOFT...BUT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 35 KNOTS BELOW 10000
FEET AND STORMS TENDING TO BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIMITS
THIS THREAT.

ON SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
THOUGH LLJ WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS
WILL LIKELY HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. A FEW STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. HAIL AGAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND ALSO
A THREAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOCUS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT
RESPECTIVELY. WILL CARRY THE LOW CHANCE POP ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR
DAY THREE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREAT ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL TAPER POPS CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY TRY TO LIFT NORTH ONCE AGAIN AS
A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE A NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE
FRONT. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH...BUT KEEP AT LEAST
A CHANCE EVERYWHERE.

WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS AS BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK...BUT
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHC POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE NE PORTION
WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD STILL LINGER.  WE ENTER INTO DEEP SW FLOW
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS SUGGESTS
AN OVERNIGHT MCS DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET SO WILL GIVE THIS SOME
CREDENCE WITH CHC POPS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.  THIS FRONT IS ALSO INDICATED TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY PUSH OUR WAY.  WITH RATHER
DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND THE COLD FRONT LINGERING WILL HAVE
THE MENTION OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE REGION.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDED IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
114 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LUDINGTON TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. GIVEN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MOVING TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...PEA SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO
AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STORM MOVEMENT
WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER...OR NEAR...
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A PERSISTENT THREAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.

MEADE DUKE

MIZ071>074-090400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
632 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     JACKSON AND CALHOUN

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KALAMAZOO AND VAN BUREN

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
831 PM EDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             NEWAYGO                 43.42N 85.80W
05/08/2004  1.00 INCH        NEWAYGO            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JK