Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
WATCH SOON. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN EASTWARD TO
NEAR JACKSON. THE FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH...WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIFTED INDICIES ARE NOW BETWEEN -4 AND -6
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORT IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS VORT INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG WARM
FRONT IS EXPECT TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE NOW...AND WHAT
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE CONVECTIVE VORT
AND WARM FRONT.

WILL CARRY THE GOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS. ZONES
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NEWAYGO COUNTY.

&&

DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-101000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ONE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO
AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES OVER WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

MEADE DUKE

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-100000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
206 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...LAKE...OCEANA...NEWAYGO AND MUSKEGON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF THE AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

JK