Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INCLUDE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LAST BEYOND 00Z...LOW
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF FOG.

AT 19Z WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WI.
THIS TROUGH MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WI BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...SO BASED ON
ITS CURRENT SPEED IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER TONIGHT BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING MUCH OF A PROBLEM THERE. LIGHT
WINDS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. WENT CLOSER TO NGM AND ETA MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AS THEY ARE MORE SIMILAR AND APPEAR REASONABLE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WI IN THE
AFTERNOON IN RAPID ZONAL FLOW. THE WEST/NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. STUCK CLOSER TO ETA/NGM MOS
HIGHS FOR SAME REASON AS I DID FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS
ARE THE FCST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES NGT INTO WED
MORNING. THE LLJ WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUES NGT...
ADVECTING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE (ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
H8 LIS -1 TO -3) AIR MASS INTO THE RGN. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP
IN OUR WSTRN COUNTIES DURING THE EVG...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN WI
OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY STG TUES NGT...SO SPC SLGT RISK SEEMS
REASONABLE. EXPECT PRECIP TO EDGE SE OF THE FA BY WEDS AFTERNOON.

WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY
ATTM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CHC OF SHOWERS LATE THU NGT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-151700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM
AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
159 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N CLEVELAND           43.94N 87.75W
06/14/2004                   MANITOWOC          WI   PUBLIC

            CITIZEN SAW FUNNEL CLOUD REACH ALMOST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
            WAY DOWN TO GROUND ALONG I-43.

&&

JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             ELTON                   45.15N 88.84W
06/14/2004  0.75 INCH        LANGLADE           WI   POST OFFICE

&&

JKL