Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING IN THE EAST THEN DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD AND MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIP
CHCS AND TEMPS.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL IS NOT COMING THROUGH AT A TIME THAT IS IDEAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
A BIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND KEEP
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH NEW MEX NUMBERS ARE COOL THEY SEEM TOO COOL GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-151700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM
AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
159 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N CLEVELAND           43.94N 87.75W
06/14/2004                   MANITOWOC          WI   PUBLIC

            CITIZEN SAW FUNNEL CLOUD REACH ALMOST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
            WAY DOWN TO GROUND ALONG I-43.

&&

JKL