Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AREAS ACROSS CWA.

SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED A CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS IN ITS QPF FIELD. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES OF CWA.

EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
ACROSS THE CWA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHCS AND
TEMPS.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVG THROUGH DURING THE WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
OVER MT...WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST...AFFECTING C/NE WI ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH FEATURES A POTENT VORT AND THE LFQ OF AN UPPER JET...
SHOULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUES AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVE THROUGH TUES NGT AND WEDS MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS EVG...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECT TO SAG TOWARD NC WI LATE THURS NGT...THEN DROP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FA ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CHC OF SHRA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...WITH A CHC OF TSTMS
RETURNING ON SUNDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AUSTIN/KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-141700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WILL SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING THREAT. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY STILL RISE
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THIS MORNINGS HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE FLOODING. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB