Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...FLOOD POSSIBILITIES IN THE SOUTH AND DENSE FOG NEAR THE
LAKE EARLY TODAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. SURFACE FEATURES HARD
TO FIND ON WEATHER MAPS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. UPPER FEATURES A
LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL A BIT VAGUE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES AND
RADAR MAKES ME BELIEVE THAT 06Z ETA HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT BY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND MID LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LEFTOVER
SHOWER THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

EVEN THOUGH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE TO KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DRY
THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THESE PERIODS. IN
LIGHT OF THIS WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE ETA HINTS AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE CWA. AGAIN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS WARRANTS CHANCY
POPS AT THIS TIME.

LATER WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE AREA KEEPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DRY. THIS RIDGE AND DRYING TREND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS HAS DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SMALL AMOUNT OF QUICKLY MOVING PRECIPITATION IS
NOT ENOUGH TO LEAVE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
WIZ035>040-045-048>050-

&&

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-141100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM...MOIST AIR NEAR
THE GROUND TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 THROUGH 3 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
FLOODING. DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB
RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB