Tornado Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS...WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND A WIND ADVISORY TODAY...AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE
THIS FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND MEANDER BACK AND
FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH A
TROF DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES AND KICKING OUT DISTURBANCES WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AND MOVING WESTWARD ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...SPENT LITTLE TIME ADJUSTING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY...AND CONCENTRATED ON SHORT TERM.

SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IS SET
UP WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...INTERSECTING A DRYLINE NEAR OGALLALA. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS
TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAMAR...THEN FIRMS UP OVER THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...AND THE WINDS WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LLJ AXIS MOVES EAST. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FEATURES FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME CATCHING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED FEATURES...NOT
TO MENTION THEIR AFFECT ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THEREFORE...RELIED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT.
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. QUESTION IS THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION. ONE UPPER WAVE IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS ARE FIRING IN THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE SUN HAS PEAKED
OUT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THICK CIRRUS HAS CUT DOWN
ON INSTABILITY FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS FIRST WAVE IS TIMED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT A SECOND WAVE IS FAST ON ITS
HEELS.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WILL
BE SOUTH OF TRIBUNE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER NEAR THE STATIONARY
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE MOST HEATING AND
EARLIEST FORCING WITH THE SECOND UPPER WAVE. OTHER STORMS MAY ROLL
OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...COULD NOT RULE OUT PRECIP
ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING STATIONARY OR EVEN
RETREATING THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPS TOMORROW...THEN THE FIRST
CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
02Z FOR THOMAS...NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND GOVE.
NE...NONE. TORNADO WATCH FOR DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.
CO...NONE.

&&

BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT SUN MAY 16 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND
GOVE COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM CDT.  SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATED AREA.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TODAY.  EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS FIRES START QUICKLY...SPREAD
FURIOUSLY...AND BURN INTENSELY.  ALL FIRES AREA POTENTIALLY SERIOUS.
ALL OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) EAST OF
A HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE.

LOCKHART