Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
950 AM MST SAT MAR 27 2004

.UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ADDITION OF
WIND ADVISORY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BASED ON RECENT OBS WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 42 TO 44 KNOTS. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
FLAGLER WITH +SN IN LIC.

MWM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
225 AM MST SAT MAR 27 2004

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WAS THROUGH KCDR
AND KBFF BUT STILL NORTH OF KAKO. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING DETECTION PLOT SHOWING LINE OF
STORMS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SCATTERED STRIKES OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
OKLAHOMA. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE IN THE FIRST PERIOD DEALING WITH POPS AND POSSIBLE
WIND ADVISORY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN ZONES WHERE WILL GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS. DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
ZONE AND 30 POPS BETWEEN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.  NEXT CONCERN IS HOW STRONG WILL THE
NORTHWEST WIND BE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. THE ETA 850MB WIND
INDICATES A MAX AROUND 18Z OF 30KTS WHILE THE GFS ONLY SHOWS 25KTS.
THE RUC SUSTAINED WIND INDICATES SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PREFER TO SEE AN 850MB WIND MAX AROUND 35KTS AND A
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  EXPECT WIND IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES
COOL CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND STAY RELATIVELY COOL
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

FS/MWM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
930 AM MST SAT MAR 27 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO COLBY TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FS/MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
845 AM MST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     HAIL             OBERLIN                 39.82N 100.53W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 AM MST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             5 E DANBURY             40.04N 100.31W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAJ