Tornado Warning 51, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
140 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT 18Z...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM A LOW CENTER IN SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTH TO A LOW CENTER IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. LAPS CAPE VALUES AT
17Z WERE ALREADY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3100 J/KG.  THE CIN VALUES WERE
STILL HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST BY RUC/ETA 12Z RUNS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT.  MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE 0-3KM LAYER BY 00Z IN EASTERN COUNTIES...AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW.  ETA HAS THE SURFACE BASED CASE INCREASING TO
2000 WEST TO 4300 J/KG EAST BY 21Z. ETA CAPE FIELD SHOWS A WRAP UP
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY 06Z...THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
THROUGH THE CWA. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TORANDOES
POSSIBLE.  THE EASTERN COUNTIES THOUGH WILL SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR TORNADOS WHERE EHI VALUES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ARE GREATER THAN 6.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING...BECOMES A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NEBRASKA WILL BE SITTING
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS AS IF ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND BEYOND. PRIMARY CONCERNS IN EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PCPN CHANCES.

GFSX/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT W/RT TO UPPER AND SFC PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SRN EXTENT OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF WRAPS UP
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY TUE...THEN SWINGS
SE TUE THRU WED. AT THE SFC...FA COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SFC HIGH PRESS THAT WILL SLIP IN FROM THE NW. BULK OF PCPN ASSOCD W/
UPPER LOW SHLD STAY NE OF FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE MAINTAINED GOING
DRY FCST.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMP DIFFERENCE XPCD TUE TO
WED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE WED AS UPPER LOW HEADS E AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE LATE IN THE DAY.

HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE ON THU...W/ LEE TROF DEVELOPING AND RETURN
SRLY FLOW SETTING UP...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION W/ INFLUX OF
RICHER LL MOISTURE AMID WAA REGIME THU AND FRI NIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME WILL LEAVE DRY FCST ALONE.

AS FOR TEMPS...DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE
CONSIDERING POTENTIAL PCPN AND LINGERING DAYTIME CLDS...THOUGH 850MB
VALUES MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE FRI/SAT...WHICH OTHERWISE LOOK TO BE
GOOD MIXING DAYS.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

NELSON/VII

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-301200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  A VOLATILE
WEATHER SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD BY EVENING AS ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 75 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT AFTER
2 PM JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO CAMBRIDGE NEBRASKA...AND ALSO
ALONG THE DRY LINE JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO
PLAINVILLE KANSAS...WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH LOCATIONS FROM
GREELEY TO PHILLIPSBURG BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE ADVANCE.  THE BOUNDARIES WILL CLASH WITH THE MOIST AND HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND TRACK
NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH...WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA OF STORMS MOVE EAST.

A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES EXISTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ENSURE STORM SHELTERS ARE PREPARED WITH
FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS AND EMERGENCY SUPPLIES.

ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND READY
FOR ACTIVATION.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

FAY/NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               40.43N 98.10W
05/29/2004  0.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LASTED FROM 600 PM TO 605 PM.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TORNADO          10 S SUPERIOR           39.88N 98.07W
05/29/2004                   JEWELL             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 N POLK                41.13N 97.78W
05/29/2004  2.75 INCH        POLK               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     DOWNBURST        10 S SUPERIOR           39.88N 98.07W
05/29/2004                   JEWELL             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL WEST OF
            LOVEWELL RESERVOIR.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          6 NE PALMER             41.29N 98.14W
05/29/2004                   NANCE              NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO AND RELAYED TO NWS OFFICE THROUGH
            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             CLARKS                  41.22N 97.84W
05/29/2004  1.00 INCH        MERRICK            NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL OCCURRED.

&&

SJC