Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...JUST UPDATE PICTURES AND WORDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS OF CLOUDS AND TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DEBRIS CLOUDS
MOST PREVALENT OVER EASTERN AREAS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT
AS SUCH...AND 80S SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE SUN. SOUTHWEST ZONES
WOULD PROBABLY BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AS  THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER WAVE SLIDE BY AND SOME INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN TROUGH AND HILL CITY. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL
THROUGHOUT...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.
MAIN ACTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA FOR THE MOST PART.

.PREV DISCUSSION...LL MASS FLUX WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WEDGE POKING IN FM THE W AIDING CONVN THIS AM...
PARTICULARLY ACRS NC KS AND OVR NE SANDHILLS. FCST DILEMMA LIES
W/EVOLUTION OF SANDHILLS CONV CLUSTER THROUGH THIS AM AND POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG ADV WK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCN/W LEAD TROF.

GIVEN STEEP EML SPREADING OUT OVERTOP CWA THIS AM AND DEEP LL MSTR
PLUME IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON FOR DVLPG MCS OVR THE SANDHILLS OR
COMING OUT OF SW SD TO DECAY GIVEN FVRBL LLJ. EXTRAPOLATION PER 850-
300MB THICKNESSES CLIPS NE CORNER OF CWA BTWN 9-12Z W/SANDHILLS
ACTIVITY AND THRU 18Z W/SD LEFT OVERS IN LINE W/SHRT TERM RUCII
PROGS. OTHERWISE SUSPECT KS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED THAT AREA BY
12Z. AFTN CHCS RELEGATED TO DEGREE OF DIURNAL RECOVERY AND DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HWVR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL WEAK ESP IN REGARD
TO SUSTAINED CVRG ALG WK SFC BNDRY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION LIKE ETA PROGS...NO AT ALL OUT OF THE QN. FOR NOW
WILL CONCENTRATE ON AM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
TRY REFINING AFT PD BUT TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHORT AS FOCUS
SHIFTS QUICKLY INTO KS TONIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT PANS OUT.?

AFT THAT...WRN TROF/CNTRL US RIDGE DVLPMNT SIGNAL TORRID WEEK HERE.
PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME NEEDED PRECIP THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST BUT
SIGNAL MIXED AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. HWVR WARMING UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO
FLIRT W/100 DEGREE READINGS ACRS THE SW QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MID
WEEK W/90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

T/MORITZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     HAIL             DOWNS                   39.50N 98.55W
06/05/2004  1.25 INCH        OSBORNE            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MKD