Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Hastings, NE

000 
WGUS73 KGID 060226
FFSGID
NEC047-060300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
925 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
HAS BEEN CANCELED...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF DAWSON COUNTY AND WATER LEVELS 
ACROSS THE COUNTY HAVE RECEDED.  NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED 
IN DAWSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN CANCELED.

TO REPORT FLOODING HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HASTINGS.

LAT...LON 4099 10014 4077 10017 4072 9948 4100 9949

$$

FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
248 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER WAVE JUST EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FURTHER WEST
ANOTHER DECENT WAVE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER WYOMING.  AT THE
SURFACE...MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT A FAIRLY CHAOTIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000 RANGE.  THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ALREADY
FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/UPPER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.  AS THE LLJ FORMS BY 06-09Z
TIME FRAME ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO START FAVORING
MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT MORE TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INSTEAD OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  BASED OFF OF THIS...WILL AIM THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO HEBRON LINE
TONIGHT.  SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE SHOWN TO BE MARGINAL BUT WITH
STRONG COLD POOL GENERATION LOOKING VERY LIKELY...A SEVERE MCS IS
HIGHLY PROBABLE.  WIND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE HAIL WILL BE A PROBLEM
AS USUAL...BUT SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS COULD EXIST AS WELL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.  FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT MCS TO EXIT AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL DRIVES NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF CWA.  THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BRING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES BY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY BUT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NEAR ORD TO NEAR 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.  QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF AREA.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENING
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP BACK INTO AREA...HOWEVER
FORCING LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY TO MONDAY.  UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST
AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA.  HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF.  SFC TROF DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  H85
TEMPS PROGGED IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ALSO STRENGTHENS AS H7 TEMPS REACH NEAR 14C. SHLD BE
MORE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND 90F.  CURRENTLY HAVE LOW POPS AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.

BY FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENS SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH THRU THE
DAKOTAS...AGAIN FOCUSING CONVECTION.  MODELS SUGGESTING CONVECTION
INITIATION IN SW SD/NW NEB...ORGANIZING INTO AN MCS AND TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH
BOUNDARY SO SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
IF CONVECTION UNFOLDS...BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY.  FORECAST REMAINS
DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING AGAIN.  OUTSIDE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...FLOOD WATCH TIL 6 AM TUE FOR AREAS S OF I80.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH TIL 6 AM TUE FOR N CNTRL KS.
&&

AWJ/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ072>077-082>087-061200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HARLAN-JEWELL-KEARNEY-
MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-THAYER-WEBSTER-
724 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MODERATE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 75
MPH THE HAZARDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 THIS EVENING...
WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH WET SOIL ALREADY IN PLACE...
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-061200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-GREELEY-HALL-HAMILTON-HOWARD-MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-
SHERMAN-VALLEY-YORK-
724 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MODERATE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 75
MPH THE HAZARDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 THIS EVENING...
WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH WET SOIL ALREADY IN PLACE...
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

FAY/T

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
717 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
07/05/2004  0.88 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             4 W LEXINGTON           40.78N 99.82W
07/05/2004  1.75 INCH        DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
730 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     DOWNBURST        LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
07/05/2004                   DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            .75 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES

0730 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
07/05/2004  0.88 INCH        DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL NEARLY COVERING THE GROUND

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
732 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
07/05/2004  1.75 INCH        DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NELSON