Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST MON DEC  6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE PROGGED TO BE NEAR/ALONG I-35 AT 23 Z... AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BY 03Z THIS EVENING.  VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT... CURRENTLY OVER SE NEW
MEXICO AT 20Z... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST RAPIDLY AND INTO SW OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE FWD 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP AROUND
900MB... THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND JET
DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE REGION.  THUS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.  CONCERNING TORNADO POTENTIAL... AS THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS (IN THE KSAT-
KLFK-KHOU REGION) ROTATING SURFACE BASE SUPERCELL STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADOES JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST... OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SE 1/2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ENJOY A
PATTERN OF FAIR WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN AND CURRENTLY LOOKS SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY.

LOOKING FAR AHEAD... OUR 16 DAY GFS IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS TWO WEEKS
FROM TODAY... ON MONDAY DEC 20.  HOWEVER... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
BY THE 22ND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  65  41  64 /  30   0   0  10
WACO, TX              46  66  39  65 /  30   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             46  65  37  62 /  80   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            45  64  39  62 /  30   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          46  64  38  62 /  30   0   0  10
DALLAS, TX            46  66  41  64 /  30   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           47  64  39  64 /  60   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         47  66  41  64 /  60   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            47  67  39  65 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC099...TXC113...TXC119...
TXC121...TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC181...TXC193...
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC223...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...
TXC257...TXC277...TXC281...TXC309...TXC333...TXC337...TXC349...
TXC363...TXC367...TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...
TXC467...TXC497...TXC503.

&&

75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071031-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
232 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
500 PM CST...WITH THE THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN
500 PM CST THROUGH 800 PM CST. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO AN AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO AREAS
OF DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND WACO IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL DUE TO A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
PACIFIC COLD MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY MID EVENING...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO MEAGER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH 5 PM CST...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 5 PM CST AND 8
PM CST.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>