Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST MON DEC  6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE PROGGED TO BE NEAR/ALONG I-35 AT 23 Z... AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BY 03Z THIS EVENING.  VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT... CURRENTLY OVER SE NEW
MEXICO AT 20Z... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST RAPIDLY AND INTO SW OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE FWD 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP AROUND
900MB... THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND JET
DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE REGION.  THUS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.  CONCERNING TORNADO POTENTIAL... AS THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS (IN THE KSAT-
KLFK-KHOU REGION) ROTATING SURFACE BASE SUPERCELL STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADOES JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST... OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SE 1/2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ENJOY A
PATTERN OF FAIR WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN AND CURRENTLY LOOKS SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY.

LOOKING FAR AHEAD... OUR 16 DAY GFS IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS TWO WEEKS
FROM TODAY... ON MONDAY DEC 20.  HOWEVER... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
BY THE 22ND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  65  41  64 /  30   0   0  10
WACO, TX              46  66  39  65 /  30   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             46  65  37  62 /  80   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            45  64  39  62 /  30   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          46  64  38  62 /  30   0   0  10
DALLAS, TX            46  66  41  64 /  30   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           47  64  39  64 /  60   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         47  66  41  64 /  60   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            47  67  39  65 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC099...TXC113...TXC119...
TXC121...TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC181...TXC193...
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC223...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...
TXC257...TXC277...TXC281...TXC309...TXC333...TXC337...TXC349...
TXC363...TXC367...TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...
TXC467...TXC497...TXC503.

&&

75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071031-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
232 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
500 PM CST...WITH THE THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN
500 PM CST THROUGH 800 PM CST. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO AN AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO AREAS
OF DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND WACO IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL DUE TO A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
PACIFIC COLD MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY MID EVENING...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO MEAGER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH 5 PM CST...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 5 PM CST AND 8
PM CST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
228 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

TXZ117-131-132-144-062130-
BOSQUE-HOOD-PARKER-SOMERVELL-
228 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
BOSQUE...HOOD...PARKER AND SOMERVELL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE COUNTIES AFTER 330 PM.

AT 228 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CISCO TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CISCO TO 14 MILES WEST OF BROWNWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

ALEDO...GLEN ROSE...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES... SPRINGTOWN...
WEATHERFORD AND WILLOW PARK ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

TXZ091-101-062145-

JACK-MONTAGUE-
250 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 250 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FLEETWOOD TO 11 MILES NORTH OF CUNDIFF TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRAD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOCONA
TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWIE TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALO PINTO.
THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

BOWIE...CUNDIFF...FORESTBURG...JACKSBORO...MONTAGUE...NOCONA...
PERRIN...RINGGOLD...ST. JO...STONEBURG AND VINEYARD ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

65/DD

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