Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.UPDATE...
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ALONG AND EAST
OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD TO THE TEMPLE/CORSICANA/ATHENS
AREAS...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD INTO THIS
REGION...AND OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DATA INDICATING 1200-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AS WELL. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS VEER TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST
POPS...AND SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING WITH
SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS EITHER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...OR
INTERACTING WITH/CROSSING THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...WE WILL BE
MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER/WIND/TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

65/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
620 AM CST

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
DFW...STORMS ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA
TO SUFFICE WITH INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY BULK OF THE DAY. TSRA NEAR AND
APPROACHING WACO NOW...MORE THROUGHOUT DAY.

WINDS BCMG SE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW IN WEST TEXAS. NW
WINDS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. CIGS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR TSRA. 25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
449 AM CST

UPPER LOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. DRY SLOT VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING.
HENCE WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH.  STILL...SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...BUT IT
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW GRAZES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...THEN WE ARE IN FOR A FEW DAYS OF
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER.  THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE NICE FOR ALL OF
THE REGION...ALLOWING US TO START TO DRY OUT.

HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ANOTHER CHANCE AT
RAIN AS A LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AS BIG A RAIN MAKER AS THE LAST TWO. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  46  55  34 /  80  60   0   0
WACO, TX              70  48  59  33 /  80  40   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  48  53  33 /  80  80  30   0
DENTON, TX            65  45  53  33 /  80  80   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          65  47  52  32 /  80  80   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  47  56  35 /  80  80   0   0
TERRELL, TX           65  48  54  33 /  80  80   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         69  49  56  34 /  80  60   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  50  60  34 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
TXC093...TXC133...TXC143...TXC221...TXC237...TXC363...TXC367...
TXC429...TXC497...TXC503.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
530 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...
WITH FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT IS FORCED NORTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS...AND A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED FROM RECENT PERSISTENT RAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BE AWARE OF AREAS THAT TEND TO FLOOD
READILY...AND NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE IMPINGING DRY AIR BRINGS
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THANKSGIVING MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED...MAINLY WEST OF I-35 THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-35 THIS EVENING.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ095-231815-

LAMAR-
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1141 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF SUMNER...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

BLOSSOM...PARIS...POWDERLY AND SUMNER ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ105>107-231900-

DELTA-HOPKINS-HUNT-
1154 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1154 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF WOLFE CITY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

COMMERCE...COOPER AND GREENVILLE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ133-134-231830-

ELLIS-JOHNSON-
1203 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYPEARL...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

GRANDVIEW...MAYPEARL...VENUS AND WAXAHACHIE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LITTLE WARNING...STAY ALERT FOR
UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ162-231915-

LEON-
1221 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1221 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF HEARNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO LEON COUNTY BY 100 PM CST. WINDS TO 70 MPH
AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO
THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM...MUCH OF THE COUNTY WILL BE IMPACTED.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION AS THE STORM APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL            HEARNE                   30.88N  96.59W
11/23/2004  0.88 INCH       ROBERTSON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN HEARNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ118-119-134-231930-

DALLAS-ELLIS-TARRANT-
1236 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1236 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OVILLA...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ARLINGTON...CEDAR HILL...COCKRELL HILL...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...
DESOTO...DUNCANVILLE...GLENN HEIGHTS...GRAND PRAIRIE...LANCASTER...
MANSFIELD...MIDLOTHIAN...OAK LEAF...OVILLA...PANTEGO AND RED OAK ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.