Severe Thunderstorm Warning 392, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.AVIATION...
620 AM CST

PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
DFW...STORMS ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA
TO SUFFICE WITH INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY BULK OF THE DAY. TSRA NEAR AND
APPROACHING WACO NOW...MORE THROUGHOUT DAY.

WINDS BCMG SE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW IN WEST TEXAS. NW
WINDS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. CIGS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR TSRA. 25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
449 AM CST

UPPER LOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. DRY SLOT VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING.
HENCE WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH.  STILL...SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...BUT IT
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW GRAZES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...THEN WE ARE IN FOR A FEW DAYS OF
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER.  THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE NICE FOR ALL OF
THE REGION...ALLOWING US TO START TO DRY OUT.

HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ANOTHER CHANCE AT
RAIN AS A LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AS BIG A RAIN MAKER AS THE LAST TWO. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  46  55  34 /  80  60   0   0
WACO, TX              70  48  59  33 /  80  40   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  48  53  33 /  80  80  30   0
DENTON, TX            65  45  53  33 /  80  80   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          65  47  52  32 /  80  80   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  47  56  35 /  80  80   0   0
TERRELL, TX           65  48  54  33 /  80  80   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         69  49  56  34 /  80  60   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  50  60  34 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 900 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
TXC093...TXC133...TXC143...TXC221...TXC237...TXC363...TXC367...
TXC429...TXC497...TXC503.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
530 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...
WITH FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT IS FORCED NORTHWARD INTO
NORTH TEXAS...AND A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED FROM RECENT PERSISTENT RAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BE AWARE OF AREAS THAT TEND TO FLOOD
READILY...AND NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE IMPINGING DRY AIR BRINGS
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THANKSGIVING MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED...MAINLY WEST OF I-35 THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-35 THIS EVENING.

25

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