Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

.AVIATION...
WEAK MEAN NW FLOW/SHEAR ALOFT AND QUANTITIES OF OLD BNDYS ARND FM
PREV SEVERAL DAYS CONVECTION. MCV NEAR KACT HELPING TO TRIGGER SCT
TSRA MAINLY NE OF DFW PTN OF TRACON AND AGREE WITH CWSU THAT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN OVR E TX AS RUC/WSETA/GFS INDICATE. MAINLY BKN-OVC VFR
CONDS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS/ANVIL BLOW OFF...THOUGH ISOLD SHRA CAN/T
BE RULED OUT THRU 01Z WITH BNDYS/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AROUND. SFC
FLOW SHOULD BE MAINLY S/SE 5-15 KTS OVRNGT WITH LLJ STAYING MAINLY
WEST OF N TX TNGT. NONE OF AFORMENTIONED MODELS INDICATE NW TX/SW
KS/NW OK CONVECTION MAKING IT BEYOND KSPS-KOKC...BUT WERE WEARY OF
THIS AND POOR MODEL HANDLING OF LATE AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUP
ONGOING WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS THRU 14-15Z. WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SLOWLY INTO W TX BY 18Z SUN...SHOULD SEE MORE ISOLD TSRA
SUN AFTN. SO LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FCST. 05/

&&

.PUBLIC UPDATE...
 518 PM CDT
HAVE UPDATES ZONES TO INCREASE POPS NE WHERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED. SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING WORKSTATION ETA
INDICATE THIS AREA WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. REST OF
FORECAST LEFT ALONE ATTM. 80

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 340 PM CDT
ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION FROM PAST 24 HOURS HAS LEFT SEVERAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR FURTHER
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION
HAVE PUT A DAMPER ON AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACHING NECESSARY LEVELS
TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WE EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...AND INDEED THERE IS SOME STARTING IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE REGION AT THE PRESENT TIME.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS A MCS SHOULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM AND CO OR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ARRIVING HERE AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK.

BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   70  89  71  90 /  50  50  20  10
WACO, TX               71  90  71  92 /  30  50  20  10
PARIS, TX              68  85  71  90 /  30  50  20  10
DENTON, TX             69  88  71  91 /  50  50  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX           69  88  71  91 /  50  50  20  10
DALLAS, TX             71  89  72  91 /  50  50  20  10
TERRELL, TX            71  89  72  91 /  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX          71  89  72  92 /  30  50  20  10
TEMPLE, TX             71  91  72  92 /  30  50  20  10
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

42

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR
THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDFTW TO AFDFWD.  THE WMO HEADER WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-35. THE
MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. LARGE HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF
I-35.

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR
THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM HWOFTW TO HWOFWD.  THE WMO HEADER WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL            5 NE MCKINNEY            33.25N  96.59W
06/05/2004  1.75 INCH       COLLIN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

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