Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTHEAST TO
PALESTINE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
BROWNWOOD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS SLIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD
END THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON IS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. AS IT DOES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIFT TO THE NORTH RETURNING MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. IN THIS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVES. ALL
MODELS HANDLE EACH OF THESE MINOR DISTURBANCE DIFFERENTLY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIME OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND DRIED
THE FORECAST DURING THE REMAINING TIME FRAMES. EVEN THESE TWO
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON THE LOCATION OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTEGRATION WITH NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
GENERATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT RETURNING THE REGION
TO A DRIER EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX               72  95  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              69  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX             68  93  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           70  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX             70  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            72  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          73  93  74  93 /  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             72  96  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND GST    CAYUGA                   31.96N  95.97W
05/31/2004  60 MPH          ANDERSON            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            60 MPH WINDS IN CAYUGA REPORTED BY THE FIRE DEPARTMENT